Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.405639 11.625573 12.991387 14.645878 16.612126 18.894991 21.776868
2025-04-13 8.515905 9.995236 11.774561 14.109508 17.150506 21.062440 26.625098
2025-04-20 8.181123 9.985632 12.285835 15.515224 20.075721 26.530965 36.864922
2025-04-27 7.616005 9.560573 12.146457 15.966374 21.713506 30.511414 46.125601
2025-05-04 6.868917 8.788205 11.415526 15.437607 21.771919 32.054153 51.843707
2025-05-11 6.526182 8.520274 11.336337 15.819339 23.252021 36.168165 63.610537
2025-05-18 6.085050 8.064769 10.926661 15.621006 23.723951 38.602932 72.984031
2025-05-25 5.712277 7.672176 10.565080 15.440601 24.175273 41.076485 83.524038
2025-06-01 5.417184 7.367907 10.304911 15.385843 24.827753 44.090238 96.922748
2025-06-08 5.084500 6.981348 9.880530 14.997800 24.783102 45.610450 107.098361
2025-06-15 4.864379 6.750639 9.683025 14.979021 25.447787 48.880920 124.677208
2025-06-22 4.551967 6.356692 9.190556 14.378998 24.842638 49.002731 131.860830
2025-06-29 4.237138 5.952524 8.672114 13.717511 24.093640 48.801031 138.766127
2025-07-06 3.978839 5.625007 8.261533 13.222150 23.641126 49.301533 149.291551
2025-07-13 4.051089 5.829463 8.760824 14.503414 27.332912 62.334499 232.572431
2025-07-20 3.971633 5.779063 8.813085 14.913565 29.111205 70.687584 310.337648
2025-07-27 3.764087 5.503552 8.446748 14.432785 28.620779 71.540516 340.396317
2025-08-03 3.692249 5.451867 8.477930 14.779936 30.299718 80.647185 462.849906
2025-08-10 3.552543 5.276852 8.271597 14.599609 30.559727 84.711320 554.811854
2025-08-17 3.424883 5.116162 8.081417 14.435509 30.839122 89.046485 672.565374
2025-08-24 3.320485 4.990634 7.948928 14.385685 31.435723 95.083982 856.445230
2025-08-31 3.185224 4.805053 7.692037 14.032417 31.095534 96.858341 983.719630
2025-09-07 3.098828 4.701744 7.586404 14.015312 31.758800 103.786571 1304.384330